by Angela Sanford
Where did the warmth of early autumn go? Where did fall go? With over fifty days remaining until the winter solstice, I’m not ready for this early chill. This past week brought a sense of foreboding—less about the mysteries of Halloween and more about the dropping temperatures that forced me to dig out my winter coat from the depths of my closet and start my car early to warm it up before work.
Snowflakes and hail even fell on my windshield last Sunday as I delivered the bulletins. Later that day, a friend posted an image on social media of a wasp nest perched high in some alder bushes. According to weather lore, the height of a wasp nest can indicate the severity of the coming winter: a higher nest means more snow. YUCK!
The 2024-25 weather model suggests a milder, drier season ahead (Flis, 2024), a forecast echoed by the Farmer’s Almanac. However, the Almanac does caution that early December, mid-January, and both early and late February may bring the heaviest snowfall.
Only time will tell if the wasps have the upper hand on weather predictions, or if the scientists’ models will hold true—or perhaps we should look closer at the other animals said to predict our winters: moles, caterpillars, and even pigs.
Recently, I’ve seen plenty of images of molehills popping up on lawns, and according to old folklore, the depth of these burrows is worth measuring. Holes deeper than 2.5 feet are said to signal a harsh winter ahead. Then there are the black-and-brown woolly caterpillars, which supposedly reveal the winter’s severity by the width of the brown band on their bellies: the narrower the band and the more black on either end, the harsher the winter. I haven’t spotted any narrow-banded caterpillars around here just yet, but I’ll be on the lookout!
A quick search online also introduced me to a peculiar forecasting method involving a pig’s spleen. According to Prater (2024), the spleen can supposedly foretell winter’s nature. A well-known weather prognosticator from Saskatchewan even practices this art; however, they’ve announced on social media that they won’t be making predictions for 2024.
So, as the cold settles in, we’ll see if nature’s creatures or scientific models have the truer grasp on what’s ahead—though, as always, winter may surprise us in ways that only time will reveal.
Sources
Flis, A. (October 2024). Winter 2024/2025: What to expect, and what do we know so far?
Prater, L. (October 2024). 16 Old Wives' Tales Predict Winter Weather.
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